Bet Skillfully on the NFL

by Joe Hunt

The key to betting with skill on pro football games centers on finding value and exploiting vulnerable point-spreads.

The general public has consistently had trouble with this because they make the following mistakes:

• They tend to overestimate the difference from the best teams to the worst teams, and therefore bet on too many favorites.

• They tend to overestimate the role of emotion on the field, expecting a team to “rise to the occasion” that doesn’t have the resources to do any such thing.

• They tend to overestimate the role of injuries. The public will load up against a team that’s just lost a starting player, just to find out that the replacement is pretty good too, or that the team has found a way to change their schematics in a way that hides the weakness.

• They tend to underestimate the fact that many top teams “take some games off” to save themselves for the playoffs. Even the best of teams can’t bring peak intensity to every game they play. Many top teams pick their spots, and don’t mind coasting if they get a comfortable lead in the standings.

• They tend to underestimate the role that turnovers play in the sport. The public will overreact to a final score that was based largely on fluke plays rather than real football, and will draw incorrect conclusions about the teams involved.

• They tend to underestimate how hard it is to pick winners. Many have gone broke because they figure they’re just too darned smart to keep losing. Picking NFL winners is hard. It’s a true skill. You’ve got to work hard and be patient to swing the percentages in your favor.

Based on the weaknesses of the public that have been outlined above, it’s easy to develop some strategies that can turn you into a skilled bettor.

• Don’t look for favorites and try to convince yourself that it’s okay to lay a lot of points. Look for underdogs that have talented players, particularly on the defensive end. It’s not hard to find teams that are underrated by the public just by looking at point-spread records. Underdogs who keep covering are worth riding until the line catches up.

• Don’t be swayed by media reports suggesting that a team “must” win a given game. You hear those and you start to think that they’ll play like a bully and run up the score. That does happen sometimes. Most of the time, though, the team doesn’t execute well enough to cover the newly inflated line. You see, the general public saw those same media reports, bet the favorite, and drove the line higher than it should be. The value now rests on the underdog…who’s probably tired of hearing all week that they’ve got no chance against the inspired juggernaut.

• Don’t jump on the injury bandwagon when a big name player goes out. Pass that team’s first game to see how they handle his absence. If you’re confident that the backup doesn’t represent much of a drop-off…go ahead and back the supposedly shorthanded team.

Longtime professional bettors will tell you NFL point-spreads are based on public perceptions rather than what’s actually most likely to happen on the field. This means the best way to bet skillfully is to find errors in those expectations and take advantage. Nobody’s saying it’s easy. Las Vegas sportsbooks can exist and profit because it’s so difficult! But, if you do the proper research, and follow the proper strategies, you’ll have no trouble hitting the 52.4% it takes to break even against the 11/10 vigorish.

A great way to outperform the public is to research team statistics. You’ll often find that public bettors rely on their emotions rather than cold hard facts when betting. They bet on a team they love, or against a team they hate. They’ll bet against quarterbacks they think are chokers. They’ll bet on head coaches they think “know how to win” when everything’s on the line. Then, once the game starts all they do is root for their bet rather than study what’s happening on the field.

You’re very likely to be a long term loser if you use this approach. You’ll really enjoy the victories when you do win. But you’ll lose more than you win. You don’t want to pay a high price for happiness. You want to make money while earning that happiness!

Research the teams at the league’s website, or at other statistical locations on the web. What you learn about each team’s strengths and weaknesses will pay off time and time again, and you’ll get the best of it in the long run.

Bet skillfully.

Joe Hunt